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Food Prices Soar -- Expert Examines Issue in Latest Money and Markets Newsletter
Jupiter, Fla. (PRWEB) May 17, 2008 -- Larry Edelson takes a closer look at the rapidly growing world population and how it is causing food prices to soar. Mr. Edelson examines the relationship between food prices and world growth.
In 2005, Mr. Edelson was one of the first analysts to forecast that food prices would rise sharply. Since then, wheat has almost quintupled, to as high as $13.49 per bushel; corn has risen more than 238% to a high of $6.48 per bushel; and soybeans have tripled in price, soaring from $4.98 to $15.86 per bushel.
Food prices are at their highest levels since 1845, according to Economist magazine and its food price index. At the core of rising food prices is the same phenomenon affecting the price of oil, gold, gas, and copper: The Federal Reserve's determination to devalue the U.S. dollar and inflate the economy. Wheat, corn, soybeans and even meat products are priced and traded in dollars so when the dollar falls, the prices of these commodities typically rise in value to compensate for the weaker dollar. But the weak dollar is not the only reason food prices are soaring higher.
The rapidly growing world population is also driving the unprecedented demand for food, with the strongest demand coming from Asia. China, for example, expects its population to increase by 300 million to 1.6 billion by 2050. Meanwhile, domestic supplies of food in China have been shrinking. Its grain harvests, including wheat, corn and rice, have declined in four of the last five years for several reasons: Arable land is shrinking at the rate of 2.47 million acres a year, aquifers have been dropping rapidly, reducing irrigation water supplies, farmland is being converted from grain production to higher value crops like fresh fruits and vegetables, and urban migration is depleting the countryside of able-bodied field workers.
The same thing is happening in India, the world's second most populous country. Over the next 15 years, India is expected to add another 300 million people to its current population of one billion. And with the mass migration to its urban centers, there are fewer farmers, and more urban sprawl.
Although China and India are by far the biggest consumers of grains and soybeans, they are not the only sources of burgeoning demand for agricultural goods. By 2030, there will be 1.4 billion more people to feed from other corners of the globe. Sub-Saharan Africa, for instance, is expected to grow from 642 million to 1.4 billion in the next 25 years.
Population growth, however, isn't the only fundamental force driving prices: Changing diets around the world are also forcing food prices higher. As incomes rise in countries such as China and India, food habits are also rapidly changing. Already, since 1985, per capita consumption of animal protein calories in China has more than doubled. And according to the Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation, demand for meat and dairy in 12 Asian countries will soar as much as 55% by 2020.
Moreover, as meat intake rises, upward pressure on grain prices actually intensifies since more feed grain is used to produce chicken, beef, and pork. All told, over the next 13 years as much as a 30% increase in global grain production will be required to meet demand.
"Clearly, food prices have all the fundamental ingredients that are combining to create a massive, long-term bull market in which food and agriculture commodity prices will go through the roof. And my technical indicators agree, showing that grain prices especially, could rise up to 500% in the next two years," Edelson states.
To read this issue online, please visit:
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?Inside-Food-Profits-1787
About Larry Edelson and Money and Markets
With nearly three decades of experience in precious metals and natural resources markets, Larry Edelson has played a pivotal role in training Weiss Research staff and in guiding Weiss Research's customers to prudent investments in the sector. His Real Wealth Report, Gold Trader Hotline and Energy Options Alert provide a continuing education on natural resource investments, with recommendations aiming for both profit and risk management. His team of technical analysts helps enhance the timing of investment recommendations with the aim of continually improving the performance results for investors.
Mr. Edelson is also a regular contributor to the daily e-letter, Money and Markets. Recognized as an expert in precious metals and natural resources, he is often called upon by the media for his investing views. Mr. Edelson has been featured on Bloomberg, Reuters, and CNBC as well as The New York Times, New York Sun, and Marketwatch.com
Mr. Edelson holds a B.A. degree from Columbia University.
Money and Markets (www.moneyandmarkets.com) is a free daily investment newsletter from Dr. Martin Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Weiss Research, Inc. is located in Jupiter, Florida. For more information about our editors, or to set up an interview, please contact Jennifer Moran at 561-627-3300 or visit www.moneyandmarkets.com.
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