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Jack Crooks Discusses Currencies and Inflation in Latest Issue of Money and Markets
Jupiter, Fla. (PRWEB) June 22, 2008 -- Jack Crooks takes a closer look at the relationship between currencies and inflation. Mr. Crooks discusses four issues that currency traders are faced with when assessing the future of interest rates.
Currencies are the medium of exchange used on a daily basis to purchase goods and services. Soaring inflation means, among other things, that the credibility of the legal tender is being called into question. A currency's yield, or interest rate, relative to its competitor currencies, has always been the most powerful driver of currency prices over time. It is the respective central bank that has control of said interest rates. And it is the movement of prices, and sometimes the growth of the economy, that dictates how the central banks alter interest rates. The rate of inflation is the common factor that all central banks use to determine what they'll do with interest rates. They want to limit the increase of prices that are directly correlated with the increase in money supply. In order to do this, they raise interest rates, making borrowing more costly, and effectively reducing the growth of money. Since fewer people are willing to borrow at higher costs, they'll have less money to exchange for goods and services. With oil and food prices rising so sharply, warning signals are popping up all over the central banks' radar screens.
Currency traders are faced with four issues as they assess the future course of interest rates.
1) Surging prices of non-discretionary consumer goods.
2) The lingering financial crisis: Central banks would usually be lowering rates, in order to keep growth alive and the consumer happy, given all the problems in the housing and consumer credit markets. But it is tough to justify those actions when prices are soaring.
3) Exchange rates are near historical levels. The Fed is concerned that if the dollar falls further, it will only add more risk to the system and exacerbate inflation, as more
speculators rush to commodities out of both weak dollar fears and an inflation hedge. This means the Fed might be forced to act more aggressively than would otherwise be justified.
4) Prior decisions play a role: The European Central Bank has kept its benchmark rate steady while the U.S. Federal Reserve's benchmark has collapsed amidst financial market turbulence. The Reserve Bank of Australia's last policy change was to the upside. The Bank of England stopped short on an easing campaign that was expected to bring down its benchmark rate much further.
"The bottom line is that the Federal Reserve better act appropriately when it matters most if they hope to salvage some credibility with the U.S. dollar," Crooks states.
To read this issue online, please visit:
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?NewsletterEntryId=1901
About JACK CROOKS & MONEY AND MARKETS
John (Jack) Crooks is the founder and president of Black Swan Capital, an independent advisory firm specializing in foreign exchange and currency markets investing for retail and institutional clients. A seasoned financial advisory with nearly 20 years of investment experience, Mr. Crooks uses both quantitative and qualitative approaches to determine the fundamental driving force(s) behind the movement of the currency, capital, and commodities markets. He is the editor of Weiss Research's latest investment offerings, World Currency Alert and World Currency Options, which were launched in August 2007.
Mr. Crooks also founded Ross International Asset Management, a discretionary money management firm specializing in global stock, bond, and currency asset management for retail clients. Previously, he was general manager of Plexus Trading, where he specialized in currency futures and commodities trading. During his successful career, Mr. Crooks served as chief currency and futures strategist of M2 Futures Inc., an investment boutique headquartered in Chicago, as well as vice president of Global Strategic Research for an international investment boutique, where he was responsible for providing daily advice and global strategy analysis.
Prior to entering the investment arena, Mr. Crooks held various corporate finance positions. He has written extensively on the subject of global currencies and international economics and has been published in Asian Times, Futures Magazine, Barron's, Bloomberg, Dow Jones Newswire, and across many financial websites. He has also appeared on Bloomberg TV and CNBC.
Mr. Crooks holds a bachelor's degree in finance from Florida State University and a master's in business administration from the University of North Texas.
Money and Markets (www.moneyandmarkets.com) is a free daily investment newsletter from Dr. Martin Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Weiss Research, Inc. is located in Jupiter, Florida. For more information about our editors, or to set up an interview, please contact Jennifer Moran at 561-627-3300 or visit www.moneyandmarkets.com.
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